Prediction Market

The Prediction Market lets anyone create binary or multi-choice predictions about anything — crypto prices, game outcomes, community milestones, or real-world events. Players bet $DEGEN points on outcomes, and correct bettors split the losing pool proportional to their stake.

Players: 2–100 | Duration: 5 minutes – 24 hours | XP: 50–500

Important: The Prediction Market uses $DEGEN, the in-game soft currency. No real money, stablecoins, or tokens are wagered. $DEGEN has no real-world monetary value and cannot be withdrawn. This is a points-based game.

How to Create a Prediction

/predict create "[question]" end:[duration]

Duration formats:

end:30m — closes in 30 minutes
end:2h — closes in 2 hours
end:24h — closes in 24 hours
end:2026-01-15 — closes at midnight UTC on a specific date

Examples:

/predict create "Will BTC close above $100k today?" end:24h
/predict create "Which guild wins the weekend raid tournament?" end:48h
/predict create "Will DegensQuest reach 10,000 users this week?" end:7d
/predict create "ETH price in 1 hour: above $3500, $3000-$3500, or below $3000?" end:1h

Binary prediction: Yes/No question. Multi-choice prediction: Up to 5 options, separated by commas after the question.

How to Place a Bet

/predict bet [prediction-id] yes [amount]
/predict bet [prediction-id] no [amount]
/predict bet [prediction-id] [option-number] [amount]

Examples:

/predict bet 42 yes 500
/predict bet 17 no 200
/predict bet 88 2 1000

Bet limits:

Minimum bet: 10 $DEGEN
Maximum bet per prediction: 10,000 $DEGEN
Minimum participants to settle: 2

You can increase your bet before the prediction closes by placing additional bets on the same side. You cannot switch sides after betting.

Prediction Types

Binary (Yes/No)

The simplest format. The question has exactly two outcomes. If the event happens, “Yes” bettors win; if not, “No” bettors win.

Multi-Choice (up to 5 options)

Create a prediction with up to 5 named options. Players pick one option and bet their $DEGEN on it. Only the winning option’s bettors receive payouts.

Viewing Active Predictions

/predict list          — all active predictions in this group
/predict list global   — predictions across all groups
/predict show [id]     — details on a specific prediction
/predict mine          — predictions you created or bet on

Resolution

Automatic Resolution (crypto price predictions)

Predictions tied to on-chain or verifiable price data (e.g., “Will ETH close above $5000?”) are resolved automatically using oracle price feeds (Chainlink and Pyth price feeds on Base). Resolution happens at the specified end time.

Manual Resolution (admin-created predictions)

Group admins who created the prediction can resolve it:

/predict resolve [id] yes
/predict resolve [id] no
/predict resolve [id] [option-number]

Community Dispute

If a resolution is disputed, any player can open a dispute within 30 minutes of resolution:

/predict dispute [id]

Disputed predictions go to a community vote among all bettors. Majority rules. If the dispute succeeds, the resolution is overturned.

Settlement and Payouts

When a prediction settles:

The winning side’s bettors split the total losing pool proportional to their stake.
A 5% platform fee is deducted from the total pot before distribution (sent to the treasury).
$DEGEN is credited to winners’ balances immediately.

Payout formula (simplified):

Your payout = Your stake + (Your stake / Total winning stakes) × (Total losing stakes × 0.95)

Example:

Prediction: “Will BTC hit $100k?” — 10 bettors, 24h duration
Total “Yes” bets: 2,000 $DEGEN (4 bettors)
Total “No” bets: 3,000 $DEGEN (6 bettors)
BTC hits $100k → Yes wins
Platform fee (5%): 250 $DEGEN
Net “No” pool: 2,750 $DEGEN
A “Yes” bettor who staked 500 $DEGEN receives: 500 + (500/2000 × 2750) = 1,187.50 $DEGEN

XP Rewards

Action	XP
Creating a prediction (first resolution)	25 XP
Participating in a prediction (any bet)	10 XP
Correct prediction (small stake: 10–99 $DEGEN)	50 XP
Correct prediction (medium stake: 100–999 $DEGEN)	150 XP
Correct prediction (large stake: 1,000–10,000 $DEGEN)	500 XP
First prediction in a group	50 XP bonus

Prediction Examples

Type	Example Question	Duration
Crypto price	”Will Bitcoin close above $100k today?“	24h
In-game	”Which guild wins the weekend raid?“	48h
Community	”How many new users join DegensQuest this week?“	7d
Chain event	”Will the Base network process over 1M transactions today?“	24h
Sports / Pop culture	”Who wins the championship this weekend?“	3d

Strategy & Tips

Payouts are parimutuel, not fixed-odds. You win a share of the losing pool proportional to your stake. The best value is backing the correct but less popular side — a smaller winning pool means each winner’s slice is larger.
Read the pool before you bet. Use /predict show [id] to see how $DEGEN is split across sides. A lopsided pool tells you where the crowd is — and where the value is if you disagree.
Bet early on mispriced markets. Odds shift as more $DEGEN comes in. Getting in before the pool corrects locks in a better effective payout.
You can add, but not switch. You may increase your stake on the same side before close, but you can’t change sides — so don’t commit your full bankroll on a hunch you might revise.
Mind the 5% fee. A platform fee is taken from the pot before distribution, so very close, near-even markets return little. Edge cases with a clear information advantage pay best.
Spread your daily cap. With a 50,000 $DEGEN/day cap across all predictions, size your bets so one market doesn’t use your whole allowance.

$DEGEN is an in-game soft currency with no real-world value — this is a points game. Bet for fun, not profit.

Responsible Betting

$DEGEN is a game currency with no real-world value. However, we follow responsible design principles:

Daily cap: Each player may bet a maximum of 50,000 $DEGEN total per day across all predictions.
Earning cap: $DEGEN earnings from predictions are capped to prevent a runaway economy.
No real money: There is no fiat on-ramp or off-ramp for $DEGEN. It cannot be bought, sold, or withdrawn.

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